2+2=4 is part of the definition of +. The question isn’t why we think 2+2=4. The question is why we’re so obsessed with addition. 2 << 2 = 8, but you don’t hear people talking about how 2 and 2 makes eight.
You simply can’t do anything without something being a priori. Is the universe orderly? Maybe it looks orderly by coincidence. The probability that it looks this way given that it’s random is simple enough, but we also need to know the probability that it looks this way and it’s not orderly. We need some a priori probability that it isn’t orderly, or we simply can’t work it out. Occam’s Razor isn’t just there to tell you that A is more likely than B. It’s there to tell you how likely A and B are, which you’ll need if you want to know how likely they are given C.
2+2=4 is part of the definition of +. The question isn’t why we think 2+2=4. The question is why we’re so obsessed with addition. 2 << 2 = 8, but you don’t hear people talking about how 2 and 2 makes eight.
You simply can’t do anything without something being a priori. Is the universe orderly? Maybe it looks orderly by coincidence. The probability that it looks this way given that it’s random is simple enough, but we also need to know the probability that it looks this way and it’s not orderly. We need some a priori probability that it isn’t orderly, or we simply can’t work it out. Occam’s Razor isn’t just there to tell you that A is more likely than B. It’s there to tell you how likely A and B are, which you’ll need if you want to know how likely they are given C.