Do high level descriptions of the world frequently account for most of the variance in high level phenomena without containing the known complexity of the substrate?
I think you can constrast thermodynamics and sociology by noticing that there is no Princess Diana molecule. All the molecules are on the same footing. None of them get to spoil the statistics by setting a trend and getting in all the newspapers papers. So perhaps Occam’s Razor grabs credit not due to it, as researchers favour simple theories when they have specific reasons to do so.
An example of the mis-use of Occam’s Razor arises in discussion of the question of whether minimum wage laws cause unemployment. Many people think they do and it is reasonable to imagine a politician finding an increase in the minimum wage to be politically necessary even as he wonders how to dodge blame for the subsequent rise in unemployment that he believes will follow. He will likely look to timing, seeking to delay the increase until there is a good chance of a tightening labour market raising wages.
How can you do empirical research on the effect of minimum wage laws on employment when practical men are scheming to conceal the very effect that you are looking for? One way is to appeal to Occam’s Razor. Let us prefer the simpler hypothesis that increases to the minimum wage are random. That is bogus. We already know of the politicing and scheming that goes on. If our research methods cannot accommodate it, they leave us in the dark and Occam’s Razor does not light our way.
Do high level descriptions of the world frequently account for most of the variance in high level phenomena without containing the known complexity of the substrate?
I think you can constrast thermodynamics and sociology by noticing that there is no Princess Diana molecule. All the molecules are on the same footing. None of them get to spoil the statistics by setting a trend and getting in all the newspapers papers. So perhaps Occam’s Razor grabs credit not due to it, as researchers favour simple theories when they have specific reasons to do so.
An example of the mis-use of Occam’s Razor arises in discussion of the question of whether minimum wage laws cause unemployment. Many people think they do and it is reasonable to imagine a politician finding an increase in the minimum wage to be politically necessary even as he wonders how to dodge blame for the subsequent rise in unemployment that he believes will follow. He will likely look to timing, seeking to delay the increase until there is a good chance of a tightening labour market raising wages.
How can you do empirical research on the effect of minimum wage laws on employment when practical men are scheming to conceal the very effect that you are looking for? One way is to appeal to Occam’s Razor. Let us prefer the simpler hypothesis that increases to the minimum wage are random. That is bogus. We already know of the politicing and scheming that goes on. If our research methods cannot accommodate it, they leave us in the dark and Occam’s Razor does not light our way.