I think LW consensus has been that the main existential risk is AI development in general. The only viable long-term option is to shut it all down. Or at least slow it down as much as possible until we can come up with better solutions. DeepSeek from my perspective should incentivize slowing down development (if you agree with the fast follower dynamic. Also by reducing profit margins generally), and I believe it has.
Anyway, I don’t see how this relates to these predictions. The predictions are about China’s interest in racing to AGI. Do you believe China would now rather have an AGI race with USA than agree to a pause?
DeepSeek from my perspective should incentivize slowing down development (if you agree with the fast follower dynamic. Also by reducing profit margins generally), and I believe it has.
Any evidence of DeepSeek marginally slowing down AI development?
and the response to ‘shut it down’ has always “what about China, or India, or the UAE, or Europe to which the response was...they want to pause bc XYZ
Well, you not have proof, not speculation, that they are not pausing. They don’t find your arguments pursuasive. What to do?!?
Which is why the original post was about updating. Something you don’t seem very interested doing. Which is irrational. So is this forum about rationality or about AI risk? I would think the later flows from the former, but I don’t see much evidence of the former.
I think LW consensus has been that the main existential risk is AI development in general. The only viable long-term option is to shut it all down. Or at least slow it down as much as possible until we can come up with better solutions. DeepSeek from my perspective should incentivize slowing down development (if you agree with the fast follower dynamic. Also by reducing profit margins generally), and I believe it has.
Anyway, I don’t see how this relates to these predictions. The predictions are about China’s interest in racing to AGI. Do you believe China would now rather have an AGI race with USA than agree to a pause?
Any evidence of DeepSeek marginally slowing down AI development?
and the response to ‘shut it down’ has always “what about China, or India, or the UAE, or Europe to which the response was...they want to pause bc XYZ
Well, you not have proof, not speculation, that they are not pausing. They don’t find your arguments pursuasive. What to do?!?
Which is why the original post was about updating. Something you don’t seem very interested doing. Which is irrational. So is this forum about rationality or about AI risk? I would think the later flows from the former, but I don’t see much evidence of the former.