You’re basically asking how we’d operationalize the claim that either the USG or PRC are “racing toward AGI”? Probably would involve some dramatic action like consolidating large amounts of compute into projects that are either nationalized or contracted to the govt (like this part of AI-2027:
“A Centralized Development Zone (CDZ) is created at the Tianwan Power Plant (the largest nuclear power plant in the world) to house a new mega-datacenter for DeepCent, along with highly secure living and office spaces to which researchers will eventually relocate. Almost 50% of China’s AI-relevant compute is now working for the DeepCent-led collective,38 and over 80% of new chips are directed to the CDZ.39 At this point, the CDZ has the power capacity in place for what would be the largest centralized cluster in the world.”
Do you want to suggest specific thresholds or modifications?
I guess “racing” is bearing a lot of weight in your description.
Because (in part due to American worries about existential AI from folks on this message board), by some measures China is already “winning” the race.
So no it doesn’t have to be a dramatic centralized investment. There is a race, ongoing, and due to their commitment to open source, they may be winning.
again, it’s like our obsession with semantics are blinding us from the truth. Whether or not China has a massive centralized strategy, they have obviously caught up.
Whether or not you admit the behavior to your definition of “race” they have caught up.
Which would make me think you and Gwen would update, from prior views that there weren’t able to catch up (bc there was no evidence they were actively “racing”).
@garrison ping
Sorry, lot on my plate.
You’re basically asking how we’d operationalize the claim that either the USG or PRC are “racing toward AGI”? Probably would involve some dramatic action like consolidating large amounts of compute into projects that are either nationalized or contracted to the govt (like this part of AI-2027:
“A Centralized Development Zone (CDZ) is created at the Tianwan Power Plant (the largest nuclear power plant in the world) to house a new mega-datacenter for DeepCent, along with highly secure living and office spaces to which researchers will eventually relocate. Almost 50% of China’s AI-relevant compute is now working for the DeepCent-led collective,38 and over 80% of new chips are directed to the CDZ.39 At this point, the CDZ has the power capacity in place for what would be the largest centralized cluster in the world.”
Do you want to suggest specific thresholds or modifications?
I guess “racing” is bearing a lot of weight in your description.
Because (in part due to American worries about existential AI from folks on this message board), by some measures China is already “winning” the race.
So no it doesn’t have to be a dramatic centralized investment. There is a race, ongoing, and due to their commitment to open source, they may be winning.
again, it’s like our obsession with semantics are blinding us from the truth. Whether or not China has a massive centralized strategy, they have obviously caught up.
Whether or not you admit the behavior to your definition of “race” they have caught up.
Which would make me think you and Gwen would update, from prior views that there weren’t able to catch up (bc there was no evidence they were actively “racing”).
https://x.com/natfriedman/status/1928092126614597686