I wrote my comment above under the assumption of mjgeddesâ honesty but I also believe they are more likely lying than not lying.
My alternative theories are: mjgeddes is just trolling without any real plan (40%), mjgeddes is planning to laugh at us all for believing something with such an explicitly low prior. (40%), something else (>19%), actually won the lottery: <1%
Yet still I feel the need to give them the benefit of the doubt. I wonder precisely when that social heuristic should be abandoned...
I wrote my comment above under the assumption of mjgeddesâ honesty but I also believe they are more likely lying than not lying.
My alternative theories are: mjgeddes is just trolling without any real plan (40%), mjgeddes is planning to laugh at us all for believing something with such an explicitly low prior. (40%), something else (>19%), actually won the lottery: <1%
Yet still I feel the need to give them the benefit of the doubt. I wonder precisely when that social heuristic should be abandoned...