While I agree with a lot of what you said in the post—particularly about the respective capabilities of China and the USA in 2050, and the vulnerability of aircraft carriers, I think the current war should change your assessment of Taïwan’s chances in a defensive War.
Why? Much of Ukraine’s defensive capability comes from its supply lines from the West. If my 2050 analysis is correct, China could easily knock out ships from America and Japan. Taiwan would have to operate without resupply.
My sense of it is that wars not turning out as you expected should decrease your confidence in wars turning out as you expect in the future, just for outside view reasons.
While I agree with a lot of what you said in the post—particularly about the respective capabilities of China and the USA in 2050, and the vulnerability of aircraft carriers, I think the current war should change your assessment of Taïwan’s chances in a defensive War.
Why? Much of Ukraine’s defensive capability comes from its supply lines from the West. If my 2050 analysis is correct, China could easily knock out ships from America and Japan. Taiwan would have to operate without resupply.
My sense of it is that wars not turning out as you expected should decrease your confidence in wars turning out as you expect in the future, just for outside view reasons.