Basically, it was really hard to predict the current situation with any sort of confidence, and whatever experts happened to guess correctly are probably lucky more than anything.
I agree with this. My problem is not in the direction of my prediction, which I still think was correct ex ante, it’s with the degree of confidence I had. I think predicting ~ 65% to 70% of the war going well for Russia with ~ 15% to 20% chance of a Winter War scenario would have been a better prediction in advance.
I agree with this. My problem is not in the direction of my prediction, which I still think was correct ex ante, it’s with the degree of confidence I had. I think predicting ~ 65% to 70% of the war going well for Russia with ~ 15% to 20% chance of a Winter War scenario would have been a better prediction in advance.