@Gerald Monroe On the question of Japan’s unique lack of variation, I think it’s unlikely to be decisive here. The ‘monoculture’ argument may have some merit, but even a genetically ‘homogenous’ population has plenty of variation—especially one 125m strong like the Japanese.
Fertility related traits are just so fundamental to genetic fitness that selection is guaranteed to wring out the higher fertility alleles where the environment allows.
I agree, but in a less diverse environment the necessary genes might be rarer/there might be less choices for recombinations. I agree that if there are subgroups in Japan’s populations that under the current conditions are breeding above replacement, and if somehow Japan’s conditions stayed static for centuries, eventually their ‘problem’ would self correct.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter because the conditions are likely to change rapidly in the next ~5-50 years. (leaving a wide window for the event “AGI + follow up developments”)
I mean even ignoring broader scale changes from AGI, the “salaryman working to death” model doesn’t make any sense when those kind of somewhat rote tasks can all be automated.
@Gerald Monroe On the question of Japan’s unique lack of variation, I think it’s unlikely to be decisive here. The ‘monoculture’ argument may have some merit, but even a genetically ‘homogenous’ population has plenty of variation—especially one 125m strong like the Japanese.
Fertility related traits are just so fundamental to genetic fitness that selection is guaranteed to wring out the higher fertility alleles where the environment allows.
I agree, but in a less diverse environment the necessary genes might be rarer/there might be less choices for recombinations. I agree that if there are subgroups in Japan’s populations that under the current conditions are breeding above replacement, and if somehow Japan’s conditions stayed static for centuries, eventually their ‘problem’ would self correct.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter because the conditions are likely to change rapidly in the next ~5-50 years. (leaving a wide window for the event “AGI + follow up developments”)
I mean even ignoring broader scale changes from AGI, the “salaryman working to death” model doesn’t make any sense when those kind of somewhat rote tasks can all be automated.