Stefan_Schubert comments on The next decades might be wild

[Stefan_Schubert]

I wrote an extended comment in a blog post.

Summary:

Summing up, I disagree with Hobbhahn on three points.

1. I think the public would be more worried about harm that AI systems cause than he assumes.

2. I think that economic incentives aren’t quite as powerful as he thinks they are, and I think that governments are relatively stronger than he thinks.

3. He argues that governments’ response will be very misdirected, and I don’t quite buy his arguments.

Note that 1 and ²⁄₃ seem quite different: 1 is about how much people will worry about AI harms, whereas 2 and 3 are about the relative power of companies/​economic incentives and governments, and government competency. It’s notable that Hobbhahn is more pessimistic on both of those relatively independent axes.