It’s not much evidence one way or the other.
I’d guess P(cults|aliens) would be noticeably bigger than P(cults|~aliens).
It’s just that the prior P(aliens) is so tiny that even the posterior P(aliens|cults) is negligible.
I’d guess P(cults|aliens) would be noticeably bigger than P(cults|~aliens).
It’s just that the prior P(aliens) is so tiny that even the posterior P(aliens|cults) is negligible.