The uncertainties that will always be present for a real gamble make the Kelly bet rash, uncertainties about not only the numbers, but about whether the preconditions for the criterion obtain.
Because of this, Zvi recommends that Kelly is the right way to think, and you should evaluate the Kelly recommendation as best you can, but you should then bet no more than 25% to 50% of that amount. Further elaboration here.
The uncertainties that will always be present for a real gamble make the Kelly bet rash, uncertainties about not only the numbers, but about whether the preconditions for the criterion obtain.
Because of this, Zvi recommends that Kelly is the right way to think, and you should evaluate the Kelly recommendation as best you can, but you should then bet no more than 25% to 50% of that amount. Further elaboration here.