I suspect that the low efficacy of mRNA vaccines (only 95% - low is relative) is likely because they’re only targeting the spike protein, which apparently has ‘high mutant escape potential’. We have a LOT more information about the virus now than we did when the mRNA designs were finalized. If companies had been allowed to make mRNA vaccine updates without resetting all the clinical trials, I believe we’d have a substantially better/stronger vaccine than just 95%, with a single shot instead of two.
Eh, I guess I’m skeptical that it’s that easy, even now, to make changes to the mRNA vaccines that would bring us from 95% up to 100% protection (against symptomatic infection), without knowing more about what’s happening to that 5%. The spike protein does have “high mutant escape potential” as we are seeing, but I’m not sure that’s what’s behind 95% vs. 100% efficacy, given that the clinical trial data was gathered mostly before mutants really started taking off. It could just be inherent variability in the strength of people’s immune systems. Not that it matters a ton, it’s not like those 5% are developing severe disease, and given that I think it’s weird to call the efficacy low (even in a relative sense — relative to which more effective vaccines?).
Eh, I guess I’m skeptical that it’s that easy, even now, to make changes to the mRNA vaccines that would bring us from 95% up to 100% protection (against symptomatic infection), without knowing more about what’s happening to that 5%. The spike protein does have “high mutant escape potential” as we are seeing, but I’m not sure that’s what’s behind 95% vs. 100% efficacy, given that the clinical trial data was gathered mostly before mutants really started taking off. It could just be inherent variability in the strength of people’s immune systems. Not that it matters a ton, it’s not like those 5% are developing severe disease, and given that I think it’s weird to call the efficacy low (even in a relative sense — relative to which more effective vaccines?).