On your argument that object-level reasoning obsoletes base rates: This is somewhat circular. You have inside views about what it means to reason well about AI progress, and superforecasters disagree. You’re partially bootstrapping from your own beliefs to dismiss theirs.
Oops, “object level reasoning obsoletes base rates” is not what I was trying to argue… my view is that the action is mostly in selecting the right base rate, i.e. that AI is more analogous to a new species than a normal technology.
Also I don’t agree that it’s circular. I think one of the correct reasons to defer to someone is them making correct arguments (as evaluated by my inside view), and that doesn’t apply. I definitely agree that I’m bootstrapping from my views to dismiss theirs. Now, there might be other reasons to defer to someone (for example, the other reasons I gave above), but I was arguing specifically against reason #3 above here.
Oops, “object level reasoning obsoletes base rates” is not what I was trying to argue… my view is that the action is mostly in selecting the right base rate, i.e. that AI is more analogous to a new species than a normal technology.
Also I don’t agree that it’s circular. I think one of the correct reasons to defer to someone is them making correct arguments (as evaluated by my inside view), and that doesn’t apply. I definitely agree that I’m bootstrapping from my views to dismiss theirs. Now, there might be other reasons to defer to someone (for example, the other reasons I gave above), but I was arguing specifically against reason #3 above here.