Eliezer, do you expect to be right more or less the next google times you calculate or estimate a probability of one in a google? If not, then for such probabilities we do know in which direction the estimate is likely to be mistaken, and so we can correct it, by the means suggested by Toby.
Eliezer, do you expect to be right more or less the next google times you calculate or estimate a probability of one in a google? If not, then for such probabilities we do know in which direction the estimate is likely to be mistaken, and so we can correct it, by the means suggested by Toby.