1) A big distraction. Since you were arguing that there had been a serious failure in rationality, giving an irrationally low estimate made me doubt your thought process.
2) Very much- it did seem like you were incredulous that even the less wrong community could possibly come up with such high estimates. Though to be fair, after reading your post, I downgraded my own estimate from 20% to 2%, so the 32% average estimate was still way too high.
3) The possibility that my friend’s Rosacea is caused by excessive aspartame ingestion.
3) The possibility that my friend’s Rosacea is caused by excessive aspartame ingestion.
I’m assuming you mean the 0.001 option. What makes you so confident? The prior for reasonably active substances with no know relevance, specific trials or perhaps knowing she vigilantly avoids the stuff? I suppose that final category includes relevant legislative interventions, depending on her location. The vile stuff is not banned here yet.
1) Current meta-analysis of studies on the dangers of aspartame show NO dangerous side effects even at upper bounds of current consumption except in PKU patients, and there are many reasons a scientist would want to prove any danger given the ubiquity of the substance.
2) Aspartame = aspartic acid + phenylalanine + 10% methanol (this is the part that is usually focused on in studies, since it breaks down into formaldehyde). The first two are amino acids found in much higher levels in many foods. There are people with PKU who can’t metabolize phenylalanine with resulting neurotoxicity since phenylalanine is normally converted to tyrosine which is converted to dopamine, and having excess phenyalanine competes with the normal pathways. Suffice it to say, she does not have PKU.
3) There is 50 times more methanol in a glass of wine than a can of diet soda, so my friend’s obsession with the fact that all the diet soda she consumed in the 90s contained methanol is bogus- in terms of methanol, she should be more concerned about her connoisseurship of wine and her use of mouthwash than her consumption of diet soda, no matter how excessive it might seem to her.
4) Allergies exist to nearly everything—so it’s not impossible that she was allergic to aspartame, but she hasn’t had it in 5 years and has never documented a reaction to diet soda, rather she thinks it somehow caused ‘toxins’ to accumulate in her which caused her rosacea. Also, if her rosacea is caused by an allergy, why focus on aspartame? It could be anything in her environment or diet. Aspartame is just one of millions of substances she comes into contact with.
5) She said herself that aspartame was the only ‘sin’ she ever indulged in and thus must be the cause of her biblical level deformity… Yes, something being sweet with no calories is so deliciously sinful… The whole theory is psychologically based on false assumptions.
6) The only reason my p is as high as .001 is a single case study in which a patient had a hypersensitivity reaction to aspartame resulting in allergic dermatitis (which responded like normal allergy to steroids (friend’s rosacea did not) and improved after she stopped use of aspartame). This is one case study. ONE.
1) Current meta-analysis of studies on the dangers of aspartame show NO dangerous side effects even at upper bounds of current consumption except in PKU patients, and there are many reasons a scientist would want to prove any danger given the ubiquity of the substance.
Thankyou, I wasn’t aware of such an analysis.
2) Aspartame = aspartic acid + phenylalanine + 10% methanol (this is the part that is usually focused on in studies, since it breaks down into formaldehyde). The first two are amino acids found in much higher levels in many foods. There are people with PKU who can’t metabolize phenylalanine with resulting neurotoxicity since phenylalanine is normally converted to tyrosine which is converted to dopamine, and having excess phenyalanine competes with the normal pathways. Suffice it to say, she does not have PKU.
Ahh, I was aware of the cognitive effects often attributed to aspartame and that mechanism does explain exactly the kind of symptoms described. I believe I actually have some phenylalanine in my supplement stockpile so if I (blindly) tested myself on some of that I may well be able to establish whether aspartame would negatively affect me.
but she hasn’t had it in 5 years and has never documented a reaction to diet soda, rather she thinks it somehow caused ‘toxins’ to accumulate in her which caused her rosacea.
5) She said herself that aspartame was the only ‘sin’ she ever indulged in and thus must be the cause of her biblical level deformity… Yes, something being sweet with no calories is so deliciously sinful… The whole theory is psychologically based on false assumptions.
That is bizarre reasoning but I suppose not too uncommon.
6) The only reason my p is as high as .001 is a single case study in which a patient had a hypersensitivity reaction to aspartame resulting in allergic dermatitis (which responded like normal allergy to steroids (friend’s rosacea did not) and improved after she stopped use of aspartame). This is one case study. ONE.
0.001 was approximately my prior. With your information I think I updated down then back up slightly to 0.001 again.
1) A big distraction. Since you were arguing that there had been a serious failure in rationality, giving an irrationally low estimate made me doubt your thought process.
2) Very much- it did seem like you were incredulous that even the less wrong community could possibly come up with such high estimates. Though to be fair, after reading your post, I downgraded my own estimate from 20% to 2%, so the 32% average estimate was still way too high.
3) The possibility that my friend’s Rosacea is caused by excessive aspartame ingestion.
I’m assuming you mean the 0.001 option. What makes you so confident? The prior for reasonably active substances with no know relevance, specific trials or perhaps knowing she vigilantly avoids the stuff? I suppose that final category includes relevant legislative interventions, depending on her location. The vile stuff is not banned here yet.
1) Current meta-analysis of studies on the dangers of aspartame show NO dangerous side effects even at upper bounds of current consumption except in PKU patients, and there are many reasons a scientist would want to prove any danger given the ubiquity of the substance.
2) Aspartame = aspartic acid + phenylalanine + 10% methanol (this is the part that is usually focused on in studies, since it breaks down into formaldehyde). The first two are amino acids found in much higher levels in many foods. There are people with PKU who can’t metabolize phenylalanine with resulting neurotoxicity since phenylalanine is normally converted to tyrosine which is converted to dopamine, and having excess phenyalanine competes with the normal pathways. Suffice it to say, she does not have PKU.
3) There is 50 times more methanol in a glass of wine than a can of diet soda, so my friend’s obsession with the fact that all the diet soda she consumed in the 90s contained methanol is bogus- in terms of methanol, she should be more concerned about her connoisseurship of wine and her use of mouthwash than her consumption of diet soda, no matter how excessive it might seem to her.
4) Allergies exist to nearly everything—so it’s not impossible that she was allergic to aspartame, but she hasn’t had it in 5 years and has never documented a reaction to diet soda, rather she thinks it somehow caused ‘toxins’ to accumulate in her which caused her rosacea. Also, if her rosacea is caused by an allergy, why focus on aspartame? It could be anything in her environment or diet. Aspartame is just one of millions of substances she comes into contact with.
5) She said herself that aspartame was the only ‘sin’ she ever indulged in and thus must be the cause of her biblical level deformity… Yes, something being sweet with no calories is so deliciously sinful… The whole theory is psychologically based on false assumptions.
6) The only reason my p is as high as .001 is a single case study in which a patient had a hypersensitivity reaction to aspartame resulting in allergic dermatitis (which responded like normal allergy to steroids (friend’s rosacea did not) and improved after she stopped use of aspartame). This is one case study. ONE.
Thankyou, I wasn’t aware of such an analysis.
Ahh, I was aware of the cognitive effects often attributed to aspartame and that mechanism does explain exactly the kind of symptoms described. I believe I actually have some phenylalanine in my supplement stockpile so if I (blindly) tested myself on some of that I may well be able to establish whether aspartame would negatively affect me.
That is bizarre reasoning but I suppose not too uncommon.
0.001 was approximately my prior. With your information I think I updated down then back up slightly to 0.001 again.