So the administrators are putting a lot of money on low expected crime, but the police can afford to put a lot more money on predicting high levels of crime, such that overall, the criminals make more money by falsifying the police pseudo-predictions rather than falsifying the administrator pseudo-predictions, despite the inherent advantage criminals have for falsifying the administrative predictions? (Planning a crime creates hidden information which only the criminals possess and can profit from; namely the date and target of the crime. Planning not to commit a crime is much harder to profit from, since someone else could still do crimes.)
Yes. The administrator predictions concern only general trends, so the date and target are not part of their bets. The police have more money than the administrators because the police can fund the market by firing lots of police officers whereas the administrator must fund the market out of his own pocketbook. The administrator earns more money than a single police officer, but not more money than (what was) half the police force.
So the administrators are putting a lot of money on low expected crime, but the police can afford to put a lot more money on predicting high levels of crime, such that overall, the criminals make more money by falsifying the police pseudo-predictions rather than falsifying the administrator pseudo-predictions, despite the inherent advantage criminals have for falsifying the administrative predictions? (Planning a crime creates hidden information which only the criminals possess and can profit from; namely the date and target of the crime. Planning not to commit a crime is much harder to profit from, since someone else could still do crimes.)
Yes. The administrator predictions concern only general trends, so the date and target are not part of their bets. The police have more money than the administrators because the police can fund the market by firing lots of police officers whereas the administrator must fund the market out of his own pocketbook. The administrator earns more money than a single police officer, but not more money than (what was) half the police force.