https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi averaged the price over time to guard against short-term manipulation, seems to have worked well enough.
Why did the crime prediction go up? You’d think the official would want crime in his province to look low.
The high crime prediction was a continuity error. Fixed. Thanks.
Dufu now correctly suggests that they can make money predicting their crimes, but he still describes the out-of-whackness as a high crime prediction.
That was another error. Fixed. Thank you.
You fixed it with a typo, “few of crimes”.
Fixed the fix. Thanks.
https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi averaged the price over time to guard against short-term manipulation, seems to have worked well enough.
Why did the crime prediction go up? You’d think the official would want crime in his province to look low.
The high crime prediction was a continuity error. Fixed. Thanks.
Dufu now correctly suggests that they can make money predicting their crimes, but he still describes the out-of-whackness as a high crime prediction.
That was another error. Fixed. Thank you.
You fixed it with a typo, “few of crimes”.
Fixed the fix. Thanks.