OpenAI’s valuation is very much reliant on being on a path to AGI in the not-too-distant future.
Really? I’m mostly ignorant on such matters, but I’d thought that their valuation seemed comically low compared to what I’d expect if their investors thought that OpenAI was likely to create anything close to a general superhuman AI system in the near future.[1] I considered this evidence that they think all the AGI/ASI talk is just marketing.
Well ok, if they actually thought OpenAI would create superintelligence as I think of it, their valuation would plummet because giving people money to kill you with is dumb. But there’s this space in between total obliviousness and alarm, occupied by a few actually earnest AI optimists. And, it seems to me, not occupied by the big OpenAI investors.
Consider, in support: Netflix has a $418B market cap. It is inconsistent to think that a $300B valuation for OpenAI or whatever’s in the news requires replacing tens of trillions of dollars of capital before the end of the decade.
Similarly, for people wanting to argue from the other direction, who might think a low current valuation is case-closed evidence against their success chances, consider that just a year ago the same argument would have discredited how they are valued today, and a year before that would have discredited where they were a year ago, and so forth. This holds similarly for historic busts in other companies. Investor sentiment is informational but clearly isn’t definitive, else stocks would never change rapidly.
Similarly, for people wanting to argue from the other direction, who might think a low current valuation is case-closed evidence against their success chances
To be clear: I think the investors would be wrong to think that AGI/ASI soon-ish isn’t pretty likely.
Really? I’m mostly ignorant on such matters, but I’d thought that their valuation seemed comically low compared to what I’d expect if their investors thought that OpenAI was likely to create anything close to a general superhuman AI system in the near future.[1] I considered this evidence that they think all the AGI/ASI talk is just marketing.
Well ok, if they actually thought OpenAI would create superintelligence as I think of it, their valuation would plummet because giving people money to kill you with is dumb. But there’s this space in between total obliviousness and alarm, occupied by a few actually earnest AI optimists. And, it seems to me, not occupied by the big OpenAI investors.
Consider, in support: Netflix has a $418B market cap. It is inconsistent to think that a $300B valuation for OpenAI or whatever’s in the news requires replacing tens of trillions of dollars of capital before the end of the decade.
Similarly, for people wanting to argue from the other direction, who might think a low current valuation is case-closed evidence against their success chances, consider that just a year ago the same argument would have discredited how they are valued today, and a year before that would have discredited where they were a year ago, and so forth. This holds similarly for historic busts in other companies. Investor sentiment is informational but clearly isn’t definitive, else stocks would never change rapidly.
To be clear: I think the investors would be wrong to think that AGI/ASI soon-ish isn’t pretty likely.