“Most people answer “librarian.” Which is a mistake: shy salespeople are much more common than shy librarians, because salespeople in general are much more common than librarians—seventy-five times as common, in the United States” - …this completely ignores the fact that works have personality requirements. Salespeople have to actually, y’know, talk to many people. I would not deem impossible that less than half a percent of salespeople and more than of half of librarians are shy.
Considering the fact that salespeople are seventy-five times more common as librarians, your estimates will give 7.5 more shy salespeople then shy librarians. You fell under base rate neglect bias right after you read about it, which is a very good manifestation of bias blindness.
“Most people answer “librarian.” Which is a mistake: shy salespeople are much more common than shy librarians, because salespeople in general are much more common than librarians—seventy-five times as common, in the United States” - …this completely ignores the fact that works have personality requirements. Salespeople have to actually, y’know, talk to many people. I would not deem impossible that less than half a percent of salespeople and more than of half of librarians are shy.
Considering the fact that salespeople are seventy-five times more common as librarians, your estimates will give 7.5 more shy salespeople then shy librarians. You fell under base rate neglect bias right after you read about it, which is a very good manifestation of bias blindness.
My math was wrong