No, I can. But my answers give only time of existence of this referent class, not general Doom. For example,
someone knows that he is a student in the University for 2 years. So he could conclude that he will be a student 2 more years with probability 50 per cent.
This is the answer to so called problem of referent class in DA. Each referent class has his own time of existence, its own end.
P(There are m total humans | You are human number n) = P(You are human number n | There are m total humans) * P(You are human number n) / P(There are m total humans)
If P(You are human number n | There are m total humans) came out to equal n/m, it would work fine. It doesn’t.
P(You are human number n | There are m total humans) = P(You are human number n | There are m total humans & You are human) * P(You are human | There are m total humans)
= n/m * P(You are human | There are m total humans)
If P(You are human | There are m total humans) was constant, it would still work. The problem is, it’s not. It only works out that way if the number of observers is proportional to the number of humans. For example, if almost all life is either human, or wildlife on planets humans terraformed.
No, I can. But my answers give only time of existence of this referent class, not general Doom. For example, someone knows that he is a student in the University for 2 years. So he could conclude that he will be a student 2 more years with probability 50 per cent.
This is the answer to so called problem of referent class in DA. Each referent class has his own time of existence, its own end.
Yes, you can’t. At least, not if you do it right.
P(There are m total humans | You are human number n) = P(You are human number n | There are m total humans) * P(You are human number n) / P(There are m total humans)
If P(You are human number n | There are m total humans) came out to equal n/m, it would work fine. It doesn’t.
P(You are human number n | There are m total humans) = P(You are human number n | There are m total humans & You are human) * P(You are human | There are m total humans)
= n/m * P(You are human | There are m total humans)
If P(You are human | There are m total humans) was constant, it would still work. The problem is, it’s not. It only works out that way if the number of observers is proportional to the number of humans. For example, if almost all life is either human, or wildlife on planets humans terraformed.
Ok, intresting point. But the fact than I am human is strong evidence that most sentient life is human.
Like the fact that i am in middle class tells that large part of people also is middle class.