(iirc Eric thinks that the difference for Bores was that it was ~20% better to donate on the first day, that the difference would be larger for Bores than for Wiener, and that “first day vs. not first day” was most of the difference, so if it’s more than few percent more costly for you to donate now rather than 2 months from now I’m not sure it makes sense to do that.)
I think that similarly for Wiener, I don’t think it makes a huge difference (maybe 15% or so?) whether you donate today vs. late December. Today vs. tomorrow doesn’t make much difference; think of it as a gradual decay over these couple months. But I think it’s much better (1.3x?) to donate in late December than early January, because having an impressive Q4 2025 fundraising number will be helpful for consolidating support. (Because Wiener is more of a known quantity to voters and party elites than Bores is, this is a less important factor for Wiener than it is for Bores.)
(iirc Eric thinks that the difference for Bores was that it was ~20% better to donate on the first day, that the difference would be larger for Bores than for Wiener, and that “first day vs. not first day” was most of the difference, so if it’s more than few percent more costly for you to donate now rather than 2 months from now I’m not sure it makes sense to do that.)
My guess for Bores was:
25% better to donate on first day than second day
2x better to donate in late 2025 than 2026
I think that similarly for Wiener, I don’t think it makes a huge difference (maybe 15% or so?) whether you donate today vs. late December. Today vs. tomorrow doesn’t make much difference; think of it as a gradual decay over these couple months. But I think it’s much better (1.3x?) to donate in late December than early January, because having an impressive Q4 2025 fundraising number will be helpful for consolidating support. (Because Wiener is more of a known quantity to voters and party elites than Bores is, this is a less important factor for Wiener than it is for Bores.)