P(no AI takeover) = 75%
I want to say “Debate or update!”, but I’m not necessarily personally offering / demanding to debate. I would want there to be some way to say that though. I don’t think this is a “respectable” position, for the meaning gestured at here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7xCxz36Jx3KxqYrd9/plan-1-and-plan-2?commentId=Pfqxj66S98KByEnTp
(Unless you mean you think P(AGI within 50 years < 30%), which would be respectable, but I don’t think you mean that.)
I want to say “Debate or update!”, but I’m not necessarily personally offering / demanding to debate. I would want there to be some way to say that though. I don’t think this is a “respectable” position, for the meaning gestured at here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7xCxz36Jx3KxqYrd9/plan-1-and-plan-2?commentId=Pfqxj66S98KByEnTp
(Unless you mean you think P(AGI within 50 years < 30%), which would be respectable, but I don’t think you mean that.)