I’m kinda skeptical of prediction markets because of the fungibility of the currency. In my imagination, people like markets with fungible currency because of some sort of credit assignment function, and it’s true that something like that happens in some contexts, to very good effect. But like, is it actually a remotely good credit assignment mechanism in this context, either in absolute terms (producing good fast useful info in real life) or in relative terms (doing so better than other available mechanisms)?
To phrase this more positively, I suspect one could do better by thinking more about the human regime of trust, credit, prediction, credit assignment, etc., as it relates to people making predictions in specific domains and having track records etc.
I’m kinda skeptical of prediction markets because of the fungibility of the currency. In my imagination, people like markets with fungible currency because of some sort of credit assignment function, and it’s true that something like that happens in some contexts, to very good effect. But like, is it actually a remotely good credit assignment mechanism in this context, either in absolute terms (producing good fast useful info in real life) or in relative terms (doing so better than other available mechanisms)?
To phrase this more positively, I suspect one could do better by thinking more about the human regime of trust, credit, prediction, credit assignment, etc., as it relates to people making predictions in specific domains and having track records etc.