I don’t see how that follows. If someone’s predictions are all nebulous, unfalsifiable claims, then we start out viewing them as a useless predictor, and never update our beliefs about them.
Plenty of people have said things akin to “there will eventually be a wolf attack”, and while they’re quick to laud themselves when one inevitably happens, they don’t generally get rewarded for this. People who make unlikely predictions and win? They get a spotlight.
Come to think of it, I’m surprised we don’t see a bit more clout being awarded to high-scoring polymarket predictors. A guy with a public record of making millions of dollars a year by predicting military outcomes that others bet against seems like he should get a slew of prestigious consultant positions, but I haven’t noticed it happening.
I don’t see how that follows. If someone’s predictions are all nebulous, unfalsifiable claims, then we start out viewing them as a useless predictor, and never update our beliefs about them.
Plenty of people have said things akin to “there will eventually be a wolf attack”, and while they’re quick to laud themselves when one inevitably happens, they don’t generally get rewarded for this. People who make unlikely predictions and win? They get a spotlight.
Come to think of it, I’m surprised we don’t see a bit more clout being awarded to high-scoring polymarket predictors. A guy with a public record of making millions of dollars a year by predicting military outcomes that others bet against seems like he should get a slew of prestigious consultant positions, but I haven’t noticed it happening.