Given that we live in a world where people are prone to outrage and over-updating when someone warns of a possible problem that winds up (in hindsight) not being a big deal, this constitutes a valid reason to not warn of possible problems, so as to conserve credibility for when you most need it. (But there are other considerations too; no comment on what’s the best policy all things considered.)
BUT, I think the OP is making a different point: We shouldn’t resign ourselves to living in that world! Instead we can say: People should stop being like that! People should stop being prone to outrage and over-updating when someone warns of a possible problem that winds up (in hindsight) not being a big deal. Let us criticize people for being that way, and let’s try to get them to change, including by writing nice blog post explanations of why this is so dumb and bad.
Given that we live in a world where people are prone to outrage and over-updating when someone warns of a possible problem that winds up (in hindsight) not being a big deal, this constitutes a valid reason to not warn of possible problems, so as to conserve credibility for when you most need it. (But there are other considerations too; no comment on what’s the best policy all things considered.)
BUT, I think the OP is making a different point: We shouldn’t resign ourselves to living in that world! Instead we can say: People should stop being like that! People should stop being prone to outrage and over-updating when someone warns of a possible problem that winds up (in hindsight) not being a big deal. Let us criticize people for being that way, and let’s try to get them to change, including by writing nice blog post explanations of why this is so dumb and bad.