If we shouldn’t expect evidence in either case then the probability of God’s existence is just the prior, right? How could P(God) be above .5? I can’t imagine thinking that the existence of an omnipotent, omniscient and benevolent being who answers prayers and rewards and punishes the sins of mortals with everlasting joy or eternal punishment was a priori more likely than not.
Contradiction: answered prayers is lots of evidence.
I looking at the concept of God and trying to guess what the priors would be for a being that meets that description. That description usually includes answering prayers. If there is evidence of answered prayers then we might want to up the probability of God’s existence- but a being capable of doing that is going to be some complex that extraordinary evidence is necessary to come to the conclusion one exists.
Contradiction: answered prayers is lots of evidence.
I looking at the concept of God and trying to guess what the priors would be for a being that meets that description. That description usually includes answering prayers. If there is evidence of answered prayers then we might want to up the probability of God’s existence- but a being capable of doing that is going to be some complex that extraordinary evidence is necessary to come to the conclusion one exists.
Only if you have some sort of information about the unanswered prayers.