I think there’s something to this. Fundamentally, the base models don’t seem to be getting much better at coding continuously, except for occasional jumps that happen maybe once a year. What’s been getting better steadily are the harnesses, which are getting rapidly better at directing those base skills. This results in making the base model much more usable over time for coding, but also more quickly exposes its limits. 20-30% mergable on the first try actually feels right to me, based on my usage.
I think there’s something to this. Fundamentally, the base models don’t seem to be getting much better at coding continuously, except for occasional jumps that happen maybe once a year. What’s been getting better steadily are the harnesses, which are getting rapidly better at directing those base skills. This results in making the base model much more usable over time for coding, but also more quickly exposes its limits. 20-30% mergable on the first try actually feels right to me, based on my usage.