I am a programmer, and I’m extremely skeptical of claims like this.
It seems to me your post outlined your position pretty well, but I feel I’m still lacking reasons to believe it myself if I didn’t already believe it. Is there anything you could say that would convince someone who didn’t already believe you?
Sure. I mostly wrote this post because I wanted to share my process, not because I wanted to defend the headline claim of a 5x productivity improvement, so I skipped over that. I could have written a version of this post where I didn’t make a specific claim about how much productivity gains I got; maybe I should have rather than stating my belief, since that’s the thing people want to object to the most!
There probably is some argument I could make and it would probably produce a more accurate number than my 5x estimate. I’m just not very interested in making it given that I and approxmiately everyone has high confidence that AI is making programmers more productive.
I am a programmer, and I’m extremely skeptical of claims like this.
It seems to me your post outlined your position pretty well, but I feel I’m still lacking reasons to believe it myself if I didn’t already believe it. Is there anything you could say that would convince someone who didn’t already believe you?
Sure. I mostly wrote this post because I wanted to share my process, not because I wanted to defend the headline claim of a 5x productivity improvement, so I skipped over that. I could have written a version of this post where I didn’t make a specific claim about how much productivity gains I got; maybe I should have rather than stating my belief, since that’s the thing people want to object to the most!
There probably is some argument I could make and it would probably produce a more accurate number than my 5x estimate. I’m just not very interested in making it given that I and approxmiately everyone has high confidence that AI is making programmers more productive.