I do think he takes it too far in concluding that Anthropic has ‘greatly increased’ danger, I think sign here is at worst ambiguous.
I don’t know if other people have this problem or it’s just me but I often find myself reading someone’s disagreement with what I said, and I think they’re correct and I’m kind of confused about why I said that in the first place. Anthropic has increased competition but it’s also done more safety research than the other frontier AI companies and done more to raise concern of dangerous behavior (e.g. it’s more public about its internal evaluations) so I agree that it’s difficult to say which way the sign points.
I wrote the quoted quick take pretty quickly. I notice that when I write without carefully revising (or when I’m speaking aloud), I sometimes say things that feel true based on vibes but that I don’t actually agree with upon reflection. I make a point not to deliberately mislead people, but it feels difficult to never say something that I don’t believe upon reflection, because doing so would require carefully thinking about every sentence before saying it. Like it requires system-2 thinking to determine whether I believe a statement, but I write and speak using system 1.
I don’t know if other people have this problem or it’s just me but I often find myself reading someone’s disagreement with what I said, and I think they’re correct and I’m kind of confused about why I said that in the first place. Anthropic has increased competition but it’s also done more safety research than the other frontier AI companies and done more to raise concern of dangerous behavior (e.g. it’s more public about its internal evaluations) so I agree that it’s difficult to say which way the sign points.
I wrote the quoted quick take pretty quickly. I notice that when I write without carefully revising (or when I’m speaking aloud), I sometimes say things that feel true based on vibes but that I don’t actually agree with upon reflection. I make a point not to deliberately mislead people, but it feels difficult to never say something that I don’t believe upon reflection, because doing so would require carefully thinking about every sentence before saying it. Like it requires system-2 thinking to determine whether I believe a statement, but I write and speak using system 1.