You don’t get it for free, but I think it’s reasonable to assume that P(concentrated power | US wins) is smaller than P(concentrated power | China wins) given that the later is close to 1 (except if you are very doomy about power concentration, which I am not), right? Not claiming the US is more reasonable, just that it’s more likely that a western democracy winning makes power concentration less likely to happen than if it’s a one-party state. It’s also possible I am overestimating P(concentrated power | China wins), I am not an expert in Chinese politics.
I disagree on your assessment of both nations, and am pretty doomy about concentration of power.
I think how a nation with a decisive strategic advantage treats the rest of the world has more to do with its decisive strategic advantage and its needs, and less to do with its flag, or even history.
Anyway, my main point was structural: if panel 2 depends on holding very particular views regarding panel 1, the parallelism is lost and it hurts the joke.
You don’t get it for free, but I think it’s reasonable to assume that P(concentrated power | US wins) is smaller than P(concentrated power | China wins) given that the later is close to 1 (except if you are very doomy about power concentration, which I am not), right? Not claiming the US is more reasonable, just that it’s more likely that a western democracy winning makes power concentration less likely to happen than if it’s a one-party state. It’s also possible I am overestimating P(concentrated power | China wins), I am not an expert in Chinese politics.
I disagree on your assessment of both nations, and am pretty doomy about concentration of power.
I think how a nation with a decisive strategic advantage treats the rest of the world has more to do with its decisive strategic advantage and its needs, and less to do with its flag, or even history.
Anyway, my main point was structural: if panel 2 depends on holding very particular views regarding panel 1, the parallelism is lost and it hurts the joke.
Thanks for the response!