Yeah I think we have different intuitions here; are we at least within a few bits of log-odds disagreement? Even if not, I am not willing to stake anything on this intuition, so I’m not sure this is a hugely important disagreement for us to resolve.
I don’t see how MAP helps things either
I didn’t realize that you think that a single consequentialist would plausibly have the largest share of the posterior. I assumed your beliefs were in the neighborhood of:
it seems plausible that the weight of the consequentialist part is in excess of 1/million or 1/billion
(from your original post on this topic). In a Bayes mixture, I bet that a team of consequentialists that collectively amount to 1⁄10 or even 1⁄50 of the posterior could take over our world. In MAP, if you’re not first, you’re last, and more importantly, you can’t team up with other consequentialist-controlled world-models in the mixture.
Yeah I think we have different intuitions here; are we at least within a few bits of log-odds disagreement? Even if not, I am not willing to stake anything on this intuition, so I’m not sure this is a hugely important disagreement for us to resolve.
I didn’t realize that you think that a single consequentialist would plausibly have the largest share of the posterior. I assumed your beliefs were in the neighborhood of:
(from your original post on this topic). In a Bayes mixture, I bet that a team of consequentialists that collectively amount to 1⁄10 or even 1⁄50 of the posterior could take over our world. In MAP, if you’re not first, you’re last, and more importantly, you can’t team up with other consequentialist-controlled world-models in the mixture.