By the time even just 2% of the population will be infected, hospitals will already be overstrained and governments won’t want to risk things getting tremendously worse, so very strong recommendations on social distancing will be given out. (They might still be weaker than in China or South Korea, but probably enough to halt the spread.) So, at some point soon you have something between 0.5% and 4% of the population infected, but everyone is at home isolated. The question is what happens next. I don’t really know because it seems like as soon as containment measures are lifted, the whole thing starts again. Maybe with summer temperatures it can be kept in check somewhat well with less drastic measures than “never leaving the house,” but I could imagine that socializing will be affected throughout the rest of the year.
By the time even just 2% of the population will be infected, hospitals will already be overstrained and governments won’t want to risk things getting tremendously worse, so very strong recommendations on social distancing will be given out. (They might still be weaker than in China or South Korea, but probably enough to halt the spread.) So, at some point soon you have something between 0.5% and 4% of the population infected, but everyone is at home isolated. The question is what happens next. I don’t really know because it seems like as soon as containment measures are lifted, the whole thing starts again. Maybe with summer temperatures it can be kept in check somewhat well with less drastic measures than “never leaving the house,” but I could imagine that socializing will be affected throughout the rest of the year.