The only causal hypothesis I’ve heard for the supplements leading to an higher rate of death is Phil’s claim that the doses are too high and are resulting in vitamin toxicity. If we accept Robin’s claim that “vitamins kill” (that is that the causal claim is true and the results aren’t just the result of uncontrolled-for correlations) one of three things has to be true: vitamins kill no matter how the body obtains them; there is something involved in taking ‘supplements’ that kills; or Phil is right and vitamin toxicity is the cause. (Is there an option I’m missing?) It seems extremely clear to me that absent any hypothesis for the second of these, vitamin toxicity is by far the most likely explanation. And the best part about this hypothesis is that is also the easiest to test. All you have to do is look for hockeysticks!
Why refuse to test the one explanation for the results we have?
Another possibility is that cancers have higher nutritional needs than normal cells, and some vitamins might be feeding cancer more than they’re feeding the person.
One more explanation: some supplements might come from untrustworthy manufacturers and be contaminated with an unidentified toxin. That’s a tough one to test, since it’s unlikely that any of the studies saved samples of the pills they used or even documented where they came from.
Plants and animals are our fellow biological creatures. While the chemical combinations in them might not be ideal for us especially if a person isn’t eating a varied diet, supplements can give proportions of vitamins, minerals, and whatever which have never been seen in nature.
One more angle: I’ve heard claims that agricultural soil has much less minerals than it did in the ancestral environment, and more so in recent decades. It’s been a long time since the glaciers came through, grinding the rocks and as far as I know, modern agriculture typically doesn’t include replacing the minerals taken out with each harvest. On the organic side, manure isn’t going to help that much if it’s from animals that were fed low-mineral food.
I file this under plausible theory. It doesn’t address which minerals are low, or how much should be added. One of my friends uses it as a reason to supplement.
I’ve worried about this too, but isn’t this something that can be easily tested? I mean, if nutritionists have really identified the vitamins, etc. we need, divided the thingspace appropriately (are all things called “protein” functionally the same?), and developed reliable ways of measuring nutritional information that goes on the food label, this should show up pretty quickly. (I’m becoming less confident of assumptions like these, in part because of errors like what Phil Goetz found here.)
When standard produce is packaged, how do they get the data for the label? Do they have to regularly test that source’s produce, or is there just a standard lookup table that e.g. all baby carrots can give as their data? (If the latter, that screams “information cascade!”)
Here is what is bothering me:
The only causal hypothesis I’ve heard for the supplements leading to an higher rate of death is Phil’s claim that the doses are too high and are resulting in vitamin toxicity. If we accept Robin’s claim that “vitamins kill” (that is that the causal claim is true and the results aren’t just the result of uncontrolled-for correlations) one of three things has to be true: vitamins kill no matter how the body obtains them; there is something involved in taking ‘supplements’ that kills; or Phil is right and vitamin toxicity is the cause. (Is there an option I’m missing?) It seems extremely clear to me that absent any hypothesis for the second of these, vitamin toxicity is by far the most likely explanation. And the best part about this hypothesis is that is also the easiest to test. All you have to do is look for hockeysticks!
Why refuse to test the one explanation for the results we have?
Another possibility is that cancers have higher nutritional needs than normal cells, and some vitamins might be feeding cancer more than they’re feeding the person.
One more explanation: some supplements might come from untrustworthy manufacturers and be contaminated with an unidentified toxin. That’s a tough one to test, since it’s unlikely that any of the studies saved samples of the pills they used or even documented where they came from.
One more hypothesis: supplements are risky because you may end up with vitamins and minerals which are out of proportion with each other.
Do we have reason to think this out of proportion issue would arise more often with supplements than it would just from diet?
Plants and animals are our fellow biological creatures. While the chemical combinations in them might not be ideal for us especially if a person isn’t eating a varied diet, supplements can give proportions of vitamins, minerals, and whatever which have never been seen in nature.
One more angle: I’ve heard claims that agricultural soil has much less minerals than it did in the ancestral environment, and more so in recent decades. It’s been a long time since the glaciers came through, grinding the rocks and as far as I know, modern agriculture typically doesn’t include replacing the minerals taken out with each harvest. On the organic side, manure isn’t going to help that much if it’s from animals that were fed low-mineral food.
I file this under plausible theory. It doesn’t address which minerals are low, or how much should be added. One of my friends uses it as a reason to supplement.
I’ve worried about this too, but isn’t this something that can be easily tested? I mean, if nutritionists have really identified the vitamins, etc. we need, divided the thingspace appropriately (are all things called “protein” functionally the same?), and developed reliable ways of measuring nutritional information that goes on the food label, this should show up pretty quickly. (I’m becoming less confident of assumptions like these, in part because of errors like what Phil Goetz found here.)
When standard produce is packaged, how do they get the data for the label? Do they have to regularly test that source’s produce, or is there just a standard lookup table that e.g. all baby carrots can give as their data? (If the latter, that screams “information cascade!”)
I don’t know whether nutritionists have identified all the nutrients we need.
And I’m pretty sure that the functioning of living organisms isn’t terribly well understood, even for “ideal” cases.