I underwent the exact change in confidence described in the above article and for pretty much those reasons, on reflection. The situation is an extremely common on in science. The only place you’re wrong is in saying that the confidence update is necessarily small.
If somebody has worked out a series of experiments to test an idea, it means they’ve thought about the idea and taken it seriously, and are willing to advertise this at the risk of some of their credibility. You’d assign it a higher prior to such an idea than an off-hand remark Not even counting the demonstration of capability it provides.
I underwent the exact change in confidence described in the above article and for pretty much those reasons, on reflection. The situation is an extremely common on in science. The only place you’re wrong is in saying that the confidence update is necessarily small. If somebody has worked out a series of experiments to test an idea, it means they’ve thought about the idea and taken it seriously, and are willing to advertise this at the risk of some of their credibility. You’d assign it a higher prior to such an idea than an off-hand remark Not even counting the demonstration of capability it provides.