If you care about confidence that you bought the QALYs, you should diversify. If you only care about confidence that the QALYs exist, you should not. This is because, due to the already high uncertainty, the utility of confidence changes linearly with the amount of money donated.
If you only care about the uncertainty of what you did, then that portion of utility would change with the square of the amount donated, since whether you donated to or stole from the charity it would increase uncertainty. If you care about total uncertainty, then the amount of uncertainty changes linearly with the donation, and since it’s already high, your utility function changes linearly with it.
Of course, if you really care about all the uncertainty you do, you have to take into account the butterfly effect. It seems unlikely that saving a few lives or equivalent would compare with completely changing the future of the world.
If you care about confidence that you bought the QALYs, you should diversify. If you only care about confidence that the QALYs exist, you should not. This is because, due to the already high uncertainty, the utility of confidence changes linearly with the amount of money donated.
If you only care about the uncertainty of what you did, then that portion of utility would change with the square of the amount donated, since whether you donated to or stole from the charity it would increase uncertainty. If you care about total uncertainty, then the amount of uncertainty changes linearly with the donation, and since it’s already high, your utility function changes linearly with it.
Of course, if you really care about all the uncertainty you do, you have to take into account the butterfly effect. It seems unlikely that saving a few lives or equivalent would compare with completely changing the future of the world.