I’ve explicitly heard friends at Anthropic justify their broken promise not to push the frontier forward, because doing so gives them more credibility when asking for regulation (since they would be asking for it against their legible financial incentives).
“We are going to do a large bad thing in order to maybe slightly increase our credibility” is just not a good tradeoff. Especially in this particular case: “We are going to break promises to increase our credibility” makes absolutely no sense.
Also: If Anthropic’s goal is to increase the odds of getting safety regulation, is this really their best idea for how to do it? I can think of half a dozen ideas that are (a) better and (b) Anthropic isn’t doing.
“We are going to do a large bad thing in order to maybe slightly increase our credibility” is just not a good tradeoff. Especially in this particular case: “We are going to break promises to increase our credibility” makes absolutely no sense.
Also: If Anthropic’s goal is to increase the odds of getting safety regulation, is this really their best idea for how to do it? I can think of half a dozen ideas that are (a) better and (b) Anthropic isn’t doing.