Yvain—Next year, please include a question asking if the person taking the survey uses PredictionBook. I’d be curious to see if these people are better calibrated.
Maybe ask them how many predictions they have made so we can see if using it more makes you better.
Probably a good idea—I use PredictionBook for casual entertainment, not as a serious effort at self-calibration.
Yvain—Next year, please include a question asking if the person taking the survey uses PredictionBook. I’d be curious to see if these people are better calibrated.
Maybe ask them how many predictions they have made so we can see if using it more makes you better.
Probably a good idea—I use PredictionBook for casual entertainment, not as a serious effort at self-calibration.