I think there’s a problem underneath this that isn’t really about capability or timelines. Even today, entry level jobs are shrinking and students are collecting credentials and work experience from first year, before they’ve really learned anything, just to stay competitive. Nothing wrong with that individually, but it’s a race, and the thing it’s racing against is a machine that can eventually do the job better anyway.
The economy is already restructuring around this, not in some future scenario, now. Figuring out what a computer can do increasingly means figuring out what a human’s role actually is, not as an afterthought once alignment is solved, but as its own open question. Even in a good, safe, slow scenario, we still haven’t answered what a person’s role is once credentials and experience stop being the advantage they used to be.
I think there’s a problem underneath this that isn’t really about capability or timelines. Even today, entry level jobs are shrinking and students are collecting credentials and work experience from first year, before they’ve really learned anything, just to stay competitive. Nothing wrong with that individually, but it’s a race, and the thing it’s racing against is a machine that can eventually do the job better anyway.
The economy is already restructuring around this, not in some future scenario, now. Figuring out what a computer can do increasingly means figuring out what a human’s role actually is, not as an afterthought once alignment is solved, but as its own open question. Even in a good, safe, slow scenario, we still haven’t answered what a person’s role is once credentials and experience stop being the advantage they used to be.