The detailed analysis is contained in the covert project supplement, but I can give a simple argument here. The intuition for why they go so slowly is that compute is a key driver of progress, and a covert project will have much much less compute than a typical project: in the branch we assume they have ~500k H100e, whereas there are ~200M H100e at SOY 2029 in this scenario (of which ~half are going to AI R&D).
Then yeah, there’s a question of how much algorithmic progress leaks to them; minimizing this is one of the main reasons that we try to scale via compute as opposed to via algorithmic advances in Plan A.
>(which also means that, post-pause, we’ve burned our entire lead, right?)
This isn’t true because by 2040 in the scenario we are very confident there’s no covert project because of improved technology such as lie detectors and privacy preserving AI verification. (Also, even without that, it seems very likely that a covert project of that size would be detected, but we’re less sure). Or in other words, it’s only true if you assume that we can’t detect covert projects after they are started, only right at the beginning when they are diverting their chips.
I’m not clear how we (the USA / Anthropic and OpenAI) maintain a lead.
Say we paused today, and said no one can build anything more powerful than Claude Mythos. Presumably China still closes the gap and develops their own Mythos, even if they’re forbidden from going further?
And with Total Research Transparency, it doesn’t seem like anyone can gain a new lead. So if the deal collapses, I’d think we’ve gone from “Anthropic might create ASI” to “Dozens of labs around the world might create ASI”?
Thanks for the comments!
The detailed analysis is contained in the covert project supplement, but I can give a simple argument here. The intuition for why they go so slowly is that compute is a key driver of progress, and a covert project will have much much less compute than a typical project: in the branch we assume they have ~500k H100e, whereas there are ~200M H100e at SOY 2029 in this scenario (of which ~half are going to AI R&D).
Then yeah, there’s a question of how much algorithmic progress leaks to them; minimizing this is one of the main reasons that we try to scale via compute as opposed to via algorithmic advances in Plan A.
>(which also means that, post-pause, we’ve burned our entire lead, right?)
This isn’t true because by 2040 in the scenario we are very confident there’s no covert project because of improved technology such as lie detectors and privacy preserving AI verification. (Also, even without that, it seems very likely that a covert project of that size would be detected, but we’re less sure). Or in other words, it’s only true if you assume that we can’t detect covert projects after they are started, only right at the beginning when they are diverting their chips.
I’m not clear how we (the USA / Anthropic and OpenAI) maintain a lead.
Say we paused today, and said no one can build anything more powerful than Claude Mythos. Presumably China still closes the gap and develops their own Mythos, even if they’re forbidden from going further?
And with Total Research Transparency, it doesn’t seem like anyone can gain a new lead. So if the deal collapses, I’d think we’ve gone from “Anthropic might create ASI” to “Dozens of labs around the world might create ASI”?