I might agree with a more limited claim like “most people in our reference class underestimate the chances of western democracies turning into fascist dictatorships over the next decade”.
I don’t think someone reading this post should have >50% odds on >50% of western democracies turning into fascist dictatorships over the next decade or two, no. I don’t see an argument that “fascist dictatorship” is a stable attractor; as others have pointed out, even countries which started out much closer to that endpoint have mostly not ended up there after a couple of decades despite appearing to move in that direction.
I might agree with a more limited claim like “most people in our reference class underestimate the chances of western democracies turning into fascist dictatorships over the next decade”.
I don’t think someone reading this post should have >50% odds on >50% of western democracies turning into fascist dictatorships over the next decade or two, no. I don’t see an argument that “fascist dictatorship” is a stable attractor; as others have pointed out, even countries which started out much closer to that endpoint have mostly not ended up there after a couple of decades despite appearing to move in that direction.