There are several documented cases of early AIDS where we have stored tissue that later tested positive for HIV, such as the gay teenager who died in St Louis in 1969. This poses a serious problem for the standard theories that HIV is transmitted horizontally (unlike any other retroviruses) and presumably came out of Africa.
But most of the earliest confirmed AIDS cases were retracted (David Carr) or have a direct connection to Africa (anonymous Congolese adults & Arvid Noe). It’s only Robert R. (the “gay teenager” you refer to) who didn’t have a direct African connection, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t one, and such a connection wouldn’t even be necessary with Haiti available as a closer source of HIV.
So how did it get into this teenager? You would need some world travelling gay subculture at the time to link the disease to Africa, but not a big enough subculture to create an epidemic.
This is one teenager. He only had to be unlucky once when having sex with just one infected man.
Since only a small portion of men are gay, we should expect that if it came out of Africa the first vectors would have been heterosexual, not homosexual.
I’m confused. This PNAS paper presents good phylogenetic evidence that the HIV strains causing the North American epidemic came from Haiti, and that Haiti’s HIV came from Africa in the 1960s, which “suggests its arrival in Haiti may have occurred with the return of one of the many Haitian professionals who worked in the newly independent Congo in the 1960s”. So it’s Haitian economic migrants who would’ve been the “first vectors” to carry HIV out of Africa in any real number, and I have no reason to think they were disproportionately homosexual.
And as there are several of these strange early cases,
If by “strange” you mean that all those cases are inexplicable, I disagree.
it would have had to come over from Africa multiple times, but always only in gay men.
Not at all.
Also, consider that the different genetic subtypes are closely associated with particular risk groups—subtype M appears in MSM and IV drug users but not others, which doesn’t make any sense for a horizontally transmitted viral vector.
I’m not an epidemiologist (or a geneticist), but couldn’t that just be a founder effect perpetuated by MSM and IV drug users transmitting HIV much better amongst themselves than they transmit it to everyone else?
Most of the subtypes are linked to particular geographical regions in Africa, which points to a long history in humans (with M representing a novelty linked to novel behaviour).
I’m not seeing why this would be evidence for/against orthodox theories of HIV & AIDS. (And if I were being pedantic, again I’d suggest the relative insularity of MSM and injecting drug users as why subtype M’s linked with them, rather than the novelty of their behaviour as such.)
I’ll pass on commenting on your last three paragraphs, since what I know about retroviruses would fit on the back of a postage stamp. I will try checking Padian et al. again, though.
But most of the earliest confirmed AIDS cases were retracted (David Carr) or have a direct connection to Africa (anonymous Congolese adults & Arvid Noe). It’s only Robert R. (the “gay teenager” you refer to) who didn’t have a direct African connection, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t one, and such a connection wouldn’t even be necessary with Haiti available as a closer source of HIV.
This is one teenager. He only had to be unlucky once when having sex with just one infected man.
I’m confused. This PNAS paper presents good phylogenetic evidence that the HIV strains causing the North American epidemic came from Haiti, and that Haiti’s HIV came from Africa in the 1960s, which “suggests its arrival in Haiti may have occurred with the return of one of the many Haitian professionals who worked in the newly independent Congo in the 1960s”. So it’s Haitian economic migrants who would’ve been the “first vectors” to carry HIV out of Africa in any real number, and I have no reason to think they were disproportionately homosexual.
If by “strange” you mean that all those cases are inexplicable, I disagree.
Not at all.
I’m not an epidemiologist (or a geneticist), but couldn’t that just be a founder effect perpetuated by MSM and IV drug users transmitting HIV much better amongst themselves than they transmit it to everyone else?
I’m not seeing why this would be evidence for/against orthodox theories of HIV & AIDS. (And if I were being pedantic, again I’d suggest the relative insularity of MSM and injecting drug users as why subtype M’s linked with them, rather than the novelty of their behaviour as such.)
I’ll pass on commenting on your last three paragraphs, since what I know about retroviruses would fit on the back of a postage stamp. I will try checking Padian et al. again, though.