In 10 to 20 years, when tensor processors are cheap and power-efficient, it will be common for networks of self-replenishing autonomous drones to surveil and police vast areas of land.
The thought of making one crossed my mind, but 10 year bets about things that seem obvious to me are unappealing. To bet in them is to stake my reputation not so much on the event, but on me being able to convince the market, soon enough before the resolution date for me to exit, of something that they’re currently — for reasons I don’t understand — denying (or if they are not in denial about it, I wont make much by betting). It’s not a bet on reality, it’s a bet on the consensus reality.
It feels like the game is, I make the market, this is the first time they’ve ever heard this take. If I present it well, they bet the same way as me and I make no mana. If I present it poorly, they narcissize and bet badly, but there’s no guarantee they’ll reverse their bets long enough before the resolution date for it to make it worth it to me.
This is an odd game.
So I guess masterful play would be to present the issue in a way that convinces people that I’m wrong about it, but in a way that’s unstable and will reverse within a year.
A very odd game.
But not a meritless one. There’s probably a lot of social good to be produced by learning to clown people like that.
Is there a betting market for this?
The thought of making one crossed my mind, but 10 year bets about things that seem obvious to me are unappealing. To bet in them is to stake my reputation not so much on the event, but on me being able to convince the market, soon enough before the resolution date for me to exit, of something that they’re currently — for reasons I don’t understand — denying (or if they are not in denial about it, I wont make much by betting). It’s not a bet on reality, it’s a bet on the consensus reality.
I’m not used to that yet.
It feels like the game is, I make the market, this is the first time they’ve ever heard this take. If I present it well, they bet the same way as me and I make no mana. If I present it poorly, they narcissize and bet badly, but there’s no guarantee they’ll reverse their bets long enough before the resolution date for it to make it worth it to me.
This is an odd game.
So I guess masterful play would be to present the issue in a way that convinces people that I’m wrong about it, but in a way that’s unstable and will reverse within a year.
A very odd game.
But not a meritless one. There’s probably a lot of social good to be produced by learning to clown people like that.