The simple problem is that Bob failed to apply a correction for selection effect to how he updates P(Copenhagen).
The less simple problem is that he’s already sneakily applied a correction for selection effect to P(alive|Everettianism), and doesn’t even realize it.
Alice is right and Bob is wrong, here.
The simple problem is that Bob failed to apply a correction for selection effect to how he updates P(Copenhagen).
The less simple problem is that he’s already sneakily applied a correction for selection effect to P(alive|Everettianism), and doesn’t even realize it.