I’m sorry if I misrepresented your beliefs! I was mainly basing this on the timeline in the new model (using Eli’s median parameters), in which Automated Coder (AC) is reached in 2031 and ASI in 2034, which I thought was well-described by “takeoff in the 2030s”. Does AGI in this plot refer to the same thing as ASI in the model? If your timelines have ASI in 2030 (and presumably AC somewhat earlier), then I can revise what I wrote to try to reflect that.
I guess another issue is that even if the median is in the early 2030s, that still leaves half the probability mass earlier than that, so what I wrote might be misleading if it’s taken to imply that you definitely don’t expect takeoff before 2030.
I’m sorry if I misrepresented your beliefs! I was mainly basing this on the timeline in the new model (using Eli’s median parameters), in which Automated Coder (AC) is reached in 2031 and ASI in 2034, which I thought was well-described by “takeoff in the 2030s”. Does AGI in this plot refer to the same thing as ASI in the model? If your timelines have ASI in 2030 (and presumably AC somewhat earlier), then I can revise what I wrote to try to reflect that.
I guess another issue is that even if the median is in the early 2030s, that still leaves half the probability mass earlier than that, so what I wrote might be misleading if it’s taken to imply that you definitely don’t expect takeoff before 2030.