Cross-posting a comment I wrote in the linked discussion topic:
Some questions to consider:
The Chihuaha has won this match. How should he expect his next match (if any) to turn out? This time, an extraordinary event propelled him to victory. How should the Chihuaha view the author of that event, and what expectations should he (the Chihuaha) have of that entity’s future behavior? And the event itself—was it predictable, from the Chihuaha’s point of view (or, for that matter, the wolf’s), or not? In short: does the Chihuaha have some way of anticipating the course of events (even if only in a generalized fashion, e.g. by predicting that possible outcomes will fall into a certain category of possibilities, or, conversely, by ruling out some class(es) of outcome)?
Cross-posting a comment I wrote in the linked discussion topic: