I basically agree with you that the AI version is much more speculative than military versions. As a consequence I think the benefits will be different than the military wargames, but they will still be present. I think the difference looks like this:
Military wargames are mostly about raising the player’s awareness of the dimensions of an established military model. In cases where we have a pretty good model, the game has some predictive power in the scenario described.
We don’t have good models for the AGI version; instead we would be generating plausible-but-concrete situations through the game against which we can compare our models, such as they are. This wouldn’t have any predictive power, at this stage; I really just think it would make deeper conversations faster and more transparent, which seems worth it.
I think a factor which might pay big dividends is that the game lets us concretely explore the interplay of multiple dimensions at once—almost all the discussion I have read constrains the subject to one dimension at a time, in the name of clarity.
I basically agree with you that the AI version is much more speculative than military versions. As a consequence I think the benefits will be different than the military wargames, but they will still be present. I think the difference looks like this:
Military wargames are mostly about raising the player’s awareness of the dimensions of an established military model. In cases where we have a pretty good model, the game has some predictive power in the scenario described.
We don’t have good models for the AGI version; instead we would be generating plausible-but-concrete situations through the game against which we can compare our models, such as they are. This wouldn’t have any predictive power, at this stage; I really just think it would make deeper conversations faster and more transparent, which seems worth it.
I think a factor which might pay big dividends is that the game lets us concretely explore the interplay of multiple dimensions at once—almost all the discussion I have read constrains the subject to one dimension at a time, in the name of clarity.