Major lotteries can have odds of more than 100 million to one against winning the jackpot. Nevertheless, ordinary people who win such a jackpot have no difficulty in discovering that they have won and collecting. It is literally news (i.e. it gets into the news-papers) when a major lottery prize goes unclaimed for as little as a week.
Ordinary people are thus capable of using observations to make correct updates against 100 million to one priors. If it happens, it is possible. Therefore arguments by Smart People that it is impossible can be ignored. The ordinary person in that situation wins; the Smart Person loses. The ordinary person — for example, Elon Musk — can easily believe that humanity can have a glorious future among the stars, and work to make that possible. He ignores the Very Smart Argument that the more glorious that future, the less likely we are to be around at its start. The Smart Person, unable to believe any such thing, achieves nothing.
Major lotteries can have odds of more than 100 million to one against winning the jackpot. Nevertheless, ordinary people who win such a jackpot have no difficulty in discovering that they have won and collecting. It is literally news (i.e. it gets into the news-papers) when a major lottery prize goes unclaimed for as little as a week.
Ordinary people are thus capable of using observations to make correct updates against 100 million to one priors. If it happens, it is possible. Therefore arguments by Smart People that it is impossible can be ignored. The ordinary person in that situation wins; the Smart Person loses. The ordinary person — for example, Elon Musk — can easily believe that humanity can have a glorious future among the stars, and work to make that possible. He ignores the Very Smart Argument that the more glorious that future, the less likely we are to be around at its start. The Smart Person, unable to believe any such thing, achieves nothing.