It may be possible to give a more precise answer, but this is what I have for now.
AlexMennen and Oscar_Cunningham have run the numbers and gotten that more precise answer. I did some calculations myself and agree with them. If the market has been efficiently incorporating information, then the prior die rolls included k+1 rolls of 3, and k rolls of each of the other numbers (this gives 1:1:5:1:1:1 odds regardless of k). My roll brings it up to k+1 6′s, so the odds should now be 1:1:5:1:1:5 (i.e., 1⁄14 for most numbers and 5⁄14 for 3 and 6).
This is assuming that the market is basically just doing Bayesian updating; it’s possible that there are some more complicated things happening with the market which make it a bad idea to make this assumption.
AlexMennen and Oscar_Cunningham have run the numbers and gotten that more precise answer. I did some calculations myself and agree with them. If the market has been efficiently incorporating information, then the prior die rolls included k+1 rolls of 3, and k rolls of each of the other numbers (this gives 1:1:5:1:1:1 odds regardless of k). My roll brings it up to k+1 6′s, so the odds should now be 1:1:5:1:1:5 (i.e., 1⁄14 for most numbers and 5⁄14 for 3 and 6).
This is assuming that the market is basically just doing Bayesian updating; it’s possible that there are some more complicated things happening with the market which make it a bad idea to make this assumption.