You can check out my attempt on Metaculus to capture the essence of his claim, though it’s debatable whether I succeeded. Right now Metaculus says there’s a 75% chance of something culturally significant happening in anti-aging research in the 2020s.
This is good. However, you did set the bar for positive resolution a lot lower than I would have based on what he claimed this time around.
I expected most people to be very skeptical of his strict claim so I wanted a more realistic hypothesis.