If you say 99.9999% confidence, you’re implying that you could make one million equally fraught statements, one after the other, and be wrong, on average, about once.
Excellent post overall, but that part seems weakest—we suffer from an unavailability problem, in that we can’t just think up random statements with those properties. When I said I agreed 99.9999% with “P(P is never equal to 1)” it doesnt’t mean that I feel I could produce such a list—just that I have a very high belief that such a list could exist.
An intermediate position would be to come up with a hundred equally fraught statements in a randomly chosen narrow area, and extrapoltate from that result.
If you say 99.9999% confidence, you’re implying that you could make one million equally fraught statements, one after the other, and be wrong, on average, about once.
Excellent post overall, but that part seems weakest—we suffer from an unavailability problem, in that we can’t just think up random statements with those properties. When I said I agreed 99.9999% with “P(P is never equal to 1)” it doesnt’t mean that I feel I could produce such a list—just that I have a very high belief that such a list could exist.
An intermediate position would be to come up with a hundred equally fraught statements in a randomly chosen narrow area, and extrapoltate from that result.